Two threats to the economic recovery
Of course there are risks, Brill says. "One is the pandemic, still. There is a risk that we see another variant which is immune to the vaccines." We would have to start all over again with the fight against the virus, nobody wants that, he adds in a conversation for the monthly client video "Our View - The Questions".
The second issue is around inflation, now that the prices in the US have risen 5 per cent in May on an annual basis. "We still think this is temporary, but we have to watch this very closely."
And that is what the central banks will do. "They will provide forward guidance", Brill explains on the likely path to policy normalisation, "and the Fed will be the first one." He expects that the Fed will provide a plan in Summer on how to taper the bond purchases. But it is not about interest rates hikes yet, that would be further down the road.
In the video, Brill also explains why the Investment Committee decided to include Chinese bonds in the portfolio.